Project Jupiter & El Paso Power: The Numbers Nobody Published

How much electricity do the new data centers need? How much does our grid have left? Who pays for the upgrades? And who profits?
February 2026  |  All sources are public records  |  Every number can be checked

What This Is About

Big data centers are coming to the El Paso area. Data centers are huge buildings full of computers. Those computers need a LOT of electricity. We looked at the public records to answer three questions:

1. How much power do they need?
2. How much power do we have left?
3. Who pays when the grid needs to grow?

The Numbers That Matter

2,300 MW

That is how much electricity El Paso Electric can make right now. Think of it as the size of the engine that powers our whole region. Homes, schools, hospitals, businesses. Everything.

Source: EPE CEO Kelly Tomblin, El Paso Matters, March 2025

2,173 MW

That is the most electricity El Paso has ever used at one time. It happened on a 110-degree day in July 2020. Our engine was running at 94% that day. Only 127 megawatts of room left. And our city has grown since then.

Source: El Paso Electric press release, July 2020

127 MW

That was our safety cushion in 2020. The gap between what we can make and what we used on the hottest day. Just 127 megawatts. And the city uses about 92 megawatts MORE each year as it grows. That cushion may already be gone.

Source: Calculated from EPE data. Growth rate from EPE 2024 System Expansion Plan.

What the Data Centers Need

Two big data centers are connecting to El Paso Electric's grid:

250 MW

That is how much power Meta's El Paso data center (100 MW) and the Wiwynn facility in Socorro (150 MW) will pull from our grid. That is almost TWICE our safety cushion from 2020.

Sources: El Paso Matters, Sept 2025 and March 2025

The Number That Changed

Project Jupiter in Santa Teresa is building its own private power plant so it does not use El Paso Electric's grid. Here is where it gets strange:

What they told the county (Sept 2025): Their power plant would make 700 to 900 megawatts.

What their permits say (Dec 2025): Their power plant would make 2,880 megawatts.

For context: El Paso Electric's ENTIRE system is 2,300 megawatts. Project Jupiter's private power plant, based on their own permit papers, would be bigger than the utility that powers our whole region.

That power plant runs on natural gas. According to the same permits, it would release 14 million tons of carbon dioxide into our air every year.

Sources: Dona Ana County Commission meeting, Sept 19, 2025; NMED Air Quality Bureau permit applications, Acoma LLC, Dec 2025; ABQ Journal, Dec 2025

Who Pays?

El Paso Electric needs to upgrade the grid. Their CEO said it: "We need another 2.3 gigawatts." That means the grid needs to DOUBLE. That costs money.

$3.5 billion

That is how much El Paso Electric plans to spend on grid upgrades through 2029. That money comes from somewhere. It comes from your electric bill.

Source: Fitch credit analysis, El Paso Matters, March 2025

El Paso Electric already tried to raise rates by more than $22 per month. City Council said no in June 2025. But the grid still needs to grow. More rate increases are coming.

Who Profits?

El Paso Electric is not owned by El Paso. It was bought in 2020 by an investment fund connected to J.P. Morgan, one of the biggest banks on Wall Street. Here is what the financial records show:

$491.8 million

That is how much El Paso Electric paid to its Wall Street owner in dividends from 2022 to 2024. That works out to about $164 million per year. That money came from your electric bill.

Source: EPE regulatory filings, reported by El Paso Matters

Now think about this. The rate increase they wanted ($22/month) across all 465,000 customers would bring in about $123 million per year. The dividends they send to Wall Street are $164 million per year. Your rate increase is smaller than their profit check.

130 Years of History

In the 1890s, a man named Nikola Tesla invented the electrical system we all use today. He called it AC power. It is the reason electricity can travel from a power plant to your home. A banker named J.P. Morgan fought against Tesla's invention at first, then bought into it once it won. Tesla died poor. Morgan's bank got rich off the system Tesla built.

130 years later, J.P. Morgan's bank owns the power company that serves El Paso. The grid Tesla's work made possible is now being pushed to its limit by data centers. The upgrades are paid by residents. The profits go to Wall Street. The pattern has not changed.

What You Can Do

Ask your city council member one question: "How much of the $3.5 billion in grid upgrades is being driven by data center demand, and how much of my rate increase pays for their power instead of mine?"

If they cannot answer with a source you can check, the decision was not based on math.

Every number in this document comes from a public source. You can check them all. If any number is wrong, correct it and show your source. That is how math works.

Key Findings

Finding 1: Power plant size changed between vote and permits

WhatValueWhenSource
Stated to commissioners700 to 900 MWSept 19, 2025Developer presentation, DAC Commission meeting
Air quality permits filed2,880 MW (2.8 GW)Dec 2025NMED Air Quality Bureau, Acoma LLC applications
El Paso Electric total system~2,300 MWCurrentCEO Kelly Tomblin, El Paso Matters

The permits were split into two applications ("east microgrid" and "west microgrid") filed as separate facilities on noncontiguous parcels. A senior attorney at the Center for Biological Diversity stated the split allows the project to avoid triggering higher EPA review thresholds.

Source: ABQ Journal, "Project Jupiter permit applications forecast massive carbon fuel use," Dec 2025

Finding 2: Emissions not available at time of vote

PollutantProjected Annual EmissionsSource
Carbon dioxide (CO2)14 million tons/yearNMED permit applications
Sulfur dioxide (SO2)54.85 tons/yearNMED permit applications

The 4-1 bond approval vote occurred September 19, 2025. The air quality permit applications containing these emission figures were filed months later. Commissioners did not have this data when voting.

Finding 3: EPE grid margin may already be negative

MetricValueSource
EPE generation capacity~2,300 MWCEO Kelly Tomblin
Record peak demand (July 2020)2,173 MWEPE press release
Margin at 2020 peak127 MWCalculated
Average annual load growth92 MW/yearEPE 2024 System Expansion Plan
Estimated growth since 2020~460 MW (5 years)Calculated: 92 x 5
Estimated 2025 peak demand~2,633 MWCalculated: 2,173 + 460
Estimated 2025 marginNEGATIVE 333 MWCalculated: 2,300 - 2,633

Note: The 2025 peak estimate assumes linear growth from the 2020 record. Actual 2025 peak data should be requested from EPE to validate or correct this projection. EPE's own RFP (July 2025) states they need 650 to 850 MW of new capacity by 2031.

Finding 4: Data center load vs grid margin

FacilityMW from EPE gridSource
Meta El Paso100 MWEl Paso Matters, Sept 2025
Wiwynn Socorro150 MWEl Paso Matters, March 2025
Total new DC load on EPE250 MW
EPE margin at 2020 peak127 MW
DC load as % of margin197%Calculated: 250 / 127

For comparison: data center water demand represented 17.9% of the water supply surplus. Data center electrical demand represents 197% of the grid surplus. The electrical pressure is approximately ten times worse than the water pressure by the same measurement method.

Finding 5: Ownership and dividend extraction

MetricValueSource
EPE ownerInfrastructure Investments Fund (J.P. Morgan)Regulatory filings
Acquisition price (2020)$4.3 billionWikipedia, SEC filings
Dividends to IIF (2022-2024)$491.8 millionRegulatory filings, El Paso Matters
Annual average dividend~$164 million/yearCalculated
Proposed rate increase$22+/month per householdEl Paso Matters, June 2025
EPE customers~465,000EPE corporate data
Revenue from proposed increase~$123 million/yearCalculated: $22 x 465K x 12
Planned capital spending$3.5 billion through 2029Fitch analysis

Investigative question: What portion of the $3.5B capital plan is attributable to data center interconnection vs organic residential/commercial growth? This determines how much of the rate increase is driven by serving data centers vs serving existing residents.

Finding 6: The Tesla/Morgan historical parallel

J.P. Morgan was directly involved in the financing of early American electrical infrastructure, initially backing Edison's DC system against Tesla's AC system. When AC won, Morgan's interests pivoted to financing the AC grid. El Paso Electric, the utility serving the region where these data center decisions are being made, is now owned by a J.P. Morgan-backed investment fund. The structural dynamic (infrastructure costs borne by ratepayers, profits extracted by financial owners) mirrors the pattern from 130 years ago in the same industry. This is verifiable through EPE's ownership records and publicly available history of early electrification financing.

Source Bibliography

#SourceData Used
1El Paso Matters, March 12, 2025EPE CEO quotes, system capacity, Fitch analysis, Wiwynn 150 MW, dividend data
2El Paso Matters, June 30, 2025Rate increase rejection, $3.5B capital plan
3El Paso Matters, Sept 2025Meta 100 MW, PJ details, community opposition
4EPE press release, July 2020Peak demand record (2,173 MW)
5EPE 2024 System Expansion Plan92 MW/year average load growth
6EPE All-Source RFP, July 2025650-850 MW capacity need, up to 1,650 MW with large loads
7NMED Air Quality Bureau, Dec 2025Acoma LLC permit applications (2,880 MW, 14M tons CO2)
8ABQ Journal, Dec 2025Permit analysis, split application concerns
9Santa Fe New Mexican, Feb 2026"Data center gold rush" analysis
10DAC Commission meeting, Sept 19, 2025700-900 MW stated, 4-1 vote
11EPE regulatory filingsDividend payments, ownership structure

Equation: Grid Pressure Ratio

Definition P_grid = (DC_load + existing_peak_demand) / grid_capacity
Where:
  DC_load = data center electrical demand on EPE grid (MW)
  existing_peak_demand = recorded system peak (MW)
  grid_capacity = total generation capacity (MW)
 
Interpretation:
  P_grid < 1.0: capacity exceeds demand (margin exists)
  P_grid = 1.0: capacity exactly meets demand (no margin)
  P_grid > 1.0: demand exceeds capacity (shortfall)

Input Values (All Sourced)

VariableValueSource
EPE total generation capacity~2,300 MWCEO Kelly Tomblin, EP Matters, March 2025
Record peak demand2,173 MWEPE press release, July 13, 2020
Average annual load growth92 MW/yearEPE 2024 System Expansion Plan (5-year avg)
Meta El Paso (EPE grid)100 MWEP Matters, Sept 2025
Wiwynn Socorro (EPE grid)150 MWEP Matters, March 2025
DC_load (combined EPE grid)250 MWCalculated: 100 + 150
PJ microgrid (stated)700 to 900 MWDeveloper presentation, Sept 2025
PJ microgrid (permits)2,880 MWNMED air quality permits, Dec 2025
PJ CO2 emissions14M tons/yearNMED air quality permits
PJ SO2 emissions54.85 tons/yearNMED air quality permits

Calculation 1: Grid Margin at 2020 Peak

Margin = capacity - peak demand
Margin = 2,300 - 2,173 = 127 MW
Grid headroom at 2020 peak: 127 MW (5.5% of capacity)

Calculation 2: DC Load vs Margin

DC load as fraction of grid margin
DC_load = 100 + 150 = 250 MW
Margin = 127 MW
DC_load / Margin = 250 / 127 = 1.969
DC demand is 197% of grid margin. Demand exceeds available headroom by nearly 2x.

Compare to water analysis: DC water demand was 17.9% of supply surplus. Electrical pressure is 197%. Approximately 11x worse by the same ratio method.

Calculation 3: Growth-Adjusted Peak (2025 Estimate)

Linear projection from 2020 peak
2020 peak: 2,173 MW
Growth (5 yr): 5 x 92 = 460 MW
Estimated 2025: 2,173 + 460 = 2,633 MW
Capacity: 2,300 MW
Margin: 2,300 - 2,633 = -333 MW
Estimated 2025 margin: NEGATIVE 333 MW. Grid may be oversubscribed BEFORE data centers connect.

Caveat: This is a linear projection. Actual 2025 peak may differ due to weather variation, new generation coming online, or demand response programs. EPE's own RFP (July 2025) confirms capacity shortfall by requesting 650-850 MW of new capacity. The direction of the estimate is consistent with EPE's own assessment.

Calculation 4: P_grid Under Multiple Scenarios

ScenarioTotal Demand (MW)Capacity (MW)P_gridStatus
2020 peak only2,1732,3000.945TIGHT
2020 peak + DC load2,4232,3001.053OVER
Est. 2025 peak only2,6332,3001.145OVER
Est. 2025 peak + DC load2,8832,3001.253OVER

Calculation 5: Jupiter Microgrid vs EPE System

Scale comparison
PJ microgrid (permits): 2,880 MW
EPE total system: 2,300 MW
PJ / EPE = 2,880 / 2,300 = 1.252
Project Jupiter's private power plant is 125% the size of El Paso Electric's entire system.

Calculation 6: Dividend Extraction vs Rate Increase

Financial flow analysis
Dividends to IIF/JPM (2022-2024): $491.8M total
Annual average: $491.8M / 3 = $163.9M/yr
 
Proposed rate increase: $22/mo per household
EPE customers: ~465,000
Annual revenue from increase: $22 x 465,000 x 12 = $122.8M/yr
 
Dividend / Rate increase revenue: $163.9M / $122.8M = 1.334
Annual dividend extraction exceeds the proposed rate increase revenue by 33%.

Structural Analog: Ohm's Law

V = I / R applied to regional economics
V (Voltage) = Property value / livability
I (Current) = Demand flow (population, investment, development)
R (Resistance) = Resource friction the community absorbs
 
R_total = R_water + R_electric + R_gas
 
As R increases and I holds constant, V decreases.
 
Residents absorb all three R components (water rates, electric rates, air quality).
Data centers bypass R (tax exempt IRBs, private microgrid, closed-loop water).
Value concentrates where resistance is lowest.
Value drains from where resistance is highest.
Same current. Same circuit. Unequal resistance paths. Predictable voltage drop.

How to Verify This Analysis

  1. Obtain EPE's stated capacity and peak demand figures from the sources listed.
  2. Compute margin: capacity minus peak demand.
  3. Add data center loads (Meta 100 MW, Wiwynn 150 MW) to peak demand.
  4. Compute P_grid for each scenario.
  5. Compare Jupiter's permit figures (NMED) to what was stated at the Sept 2025 commission meeting.
  6. Compare dividend payments to proposed rate increase revenue.

If your numbers differ, publish the correction with your source.

De Que Se Trata

Quieren construir grandes centros de datos cerca de El Paso. Los centros de datos necesitan MUCHA electricidad. Miramos los documentos publicos para responder tres preguntas: ¿cuanta electricidad necesitan? ¿cuanta nos queda? ¿quien paga?

Los Numeros Que Importan

2,300 MW

Esa es toda la electricidad que El Paso Electric puede producir. Es el motor que mueve toda nuestra region.

Fuente: CEO de EPE, El Paso Matters, marzo 2025

2,173 MW

Eso es lo maximo que hemos usado. Paso un dia de 110 grados en julio 2020. Solo quedaban 127 megawatts de espacio. Y la ciudad ha crecido desde entonces.

Fuente: El Paso Electric, julio 2020

250 MW

Eso es lo que los nuevos centros de datos necesitan de nuestra red electrica. Meta El Paso (100 MW) y Wiwynn en Socorro (150 MW). Eso es casi el doble de nuestro colchon de seguridad.

Fuentes: El Paso Matters, sept y marzo 2025

El Numero Que Cambio

Project Jupiter en Santa Teresa va a construir su propia planta de electricidad. Pero los numeros no son iguales:

Lo que dijeron al condado (sept 2025): 700 a 900 megawatts.

Lo que dicen sus permisos (dic 2025): 2,880 megawatts.

El Paso Electric produce 2,300 megawatts. La planta privada de Project Jupiter seria MAS GRANDE que toda nuestra compania de electricidad. Y esa planta usa gas natural. Segun los permisos, va a producir 14 millones de toneladas de CO2 al ano en nuestro aire.

Quien Paga

$3.5 mil millones

Eso es lo que El Paso Electric planea gastar para mejorar la red electrica. Ese dinero sale de tu recibo de luz.

Ya trataron de subir las tarifas mas de $22 al mes. El Concejo dijo que no en junio 2025. Pero la red necesita crecer. Van a intentar otra vez.

Quien Se Beneficia

$491.8 millones

Eso es lo que El Paso Electric le pago a su dueno de Wall Street (J.P. Morgan) en dividendos de 2022 a 2024. Eso sale de tu recibo de luz. El aumento de tarifa que querian ($22/mes) generaria $123 millones al ano. Los dividendos a Wall Street son $164 millones al ano. Tu aumento es mas chico que su cheque de ganancias.

Fuente: Documentos regulatorios, El Paso Matters

130 Anos de Historia

En los 1890s, Nikola Tesla invento el sistema electrico que todos usamos hoy. Un banquero llamado J.P. Morgan peleo contra Tesla, despues compro el sistema cuando gano. Tesla murio pobre. El banco se hizo rico con lo que Tesla construyo.

130 anos despues, el banco de J.P. Morgan es dueno de la compania de electricidad de El Paso. La red que Tesla hizo posible esta siendo empujada al limite. Las mejoras las pagan los residentes. Las ganancias van a Wall Street.

Que Puedes Hacer

Preguntale a tu representante: "¿Cuanto del aumento en mi recibo de luz paga por electricidad para centros de datos en vez de para mi?"

Si no te pueden responder con numeros, la decision no se baso en matematicas.

Document Integrity

This document contains no proprietary methods. Every number comes from a public source. Every calculation can be reproduced with a calculator and the cited documents. If any number is wrong, correct it publicly and cite your source.

See also: Project Jupiter Water Analysis

Verification This document is designed to be content-hashed and anchored to the Solana blockchain before publication. When a SHA-256 hash and transaction signature appear below, the content existed at the stated time and has not been modified since.

February 2026. Public domain. No attribution required. Corrections welcome.